In the 1970s, a famous study took place on horse race betting by a psychology professor called Paul Slovic.

Slovic got together a bunch of professional handicappers.  These were people who made their living betting horses.

Then he started to give them varying amounts of information to help them make betting decisions.

When the sports betters were given no information before placing their bets, they didn’t do very well. 

No surprise there.

When they were given a small amount of information on the horses running, the accuracy of their bets increased. 

Also no surprise.

But when they were given more information still (on the horses, the weather, the racetrack, the jockeys, the trainers and so on) the accuracy of their bets didn’t change. 

The only thing which changed was the confidence with which these handicappers placed their bets.

So even though their decision-making was no better or worse with more data, the sports betters felt like they were making better decisions.

Interesting right?

Let’s bring this back to more practical matters and use a big decision like switching jobs or changing companies as an example.

These sorts of decisions are often neck & neck.

And what I’ve seen so often in instances like these (and not just seen, but been in the thick of myself) are decision-making data gathering exercises of epic proportions.

In this example, you could get hold of data on everything from salary to job location, to new boss, to work/life balance, commuting time, retirement savings plans, development opportunities, career progression opportunities, the company culture and company’s potential for growth.

I’m sure there are other data points available too.

And they all go into the decision-making melting pot.

But if the Slovic study is to believed, your chances of making the best decision don't increase when you add these extra data points – even if it feels like they are!

This makes a lot of sense to me.

I’d go so far to say that all more data does is muddy the waters to such an extent that it can turn decisions into excruciating, coal-and-ice, earth-shaking moments which then start to dominate everything else which is happening in our lives.

Again:  I’m speaking as much from my own experience here as anything else.

But it doesn’t need to be this way.

I’ll bet whatever decision you’re trying to make, you have more than enough data already.

And if you’re honest with yourself, you might already know the answer to your decision too.  You’re probably already on the home stretch.

All you need to do is take the time to check in with yourself. 

Not with your data.

That’s my thought for today.

 - Tom

p.s.  Have you got a big decision to make right now?

There’s a method which lets you “hack” the decision-making process, get instant clarity on your decision and check in with yourself all at the same time. 

I say “instant”.  It takes about 10 seconds. 

I’ve used it myself and it works.  It’s not a flash in the pan.

If you want, I’ll share this method with you.

Just hit reply and let me know a decision you’re trying to make at the moment.  In return, I’ll reply back with this 10 second method which you can use to help you make that very decision.